The energy transition requires investment in almost all sectors. The EMI estimates the corresponding investment requirements for selected sectors in a plan scenario up to 2030 and discusses possible implications.
240 billion euros - this could be the annual investment requirement for the energy transition in the transport, residential building and electricity supply sectors in Germany by 2030. This was calculated by the EWI for a possible plan scenario as part of a new analysis. The investment requirement in residential buildings, i.e. renovation and new heating systems, would account for around half of this. Overall, the level of investment would have to increase significantly compared to previous years. In the electricity supply sector, for example, total investment in renewable energies, power plants and grids would have to roughly double compared to historical levels. North Rhine-Westphalia is likely to account for a relevant proportion of this investment requirement due to the existing structures such as generation capacity, population density and industrial demand.
In the analysis "Investments in the energy transition by 2030 - investment requirements in the transport, residential building and electricity sectors", a team from the Institute of Energy Economics (EWI) at the University of Cologne calculates possible investment requirements for the energy transition and other economic aspects of these investments based on a climate neutrality scenario from the EWI's main report as part of the dena flagship study "Towards climate neutrality". This scenario is supplemented by current political objectives. The calculated estimated value for the investment requirement is derived from an assumed investment trajectory and typical current investment costs. The value depends on numerous assumptions, for example on the expansion of renewable energies, the need to refurbish residential buildings and the actual investment costs in the period under consideration.
Investment needs of the sectors under consideration
In the scenario under consideration, the need for new investments in the three sectors mentioned amounts to a total of around 1.9 trillion by 2030. Euro. The largest share at around 1 trillion. Euros would be allocated to the renovation and modernization of residential buildings and system technology. In the transport sector, the greatest need for investment would come from partially replacing the vehicle fleet; Around 317 billion euros could be incurred by 2030. According to the analysis, an average of 53 billion euros would have to be invested annually by companies and households in electricity supply, especially in renewable energies and power grids.
The analysis only covers a portion of the investments directly and indirectly associated with the energy transition. For example, the investment needs in industry, the gas and hydrogen industry and other areas of heat supply were not taken into account. There is also a need for extensive indirect investment, e.g. in the further development of production capacities, value chains or the required transport infrastructure. In addition, no price effects from the significant increase in demand for the required capital goods and labor were taken into account. If the plan scenario examined is implemented, the total investment requirement for the energy transition is likely to exceed the 1.9 trillion calculated here. euros.
Investment delay of around 220 billion euros
Compared to the scenario examined here, there has already been an investment delay since 2018. This accounts for around 220 billion euros and therefore around ten percent of the total investment requirement in the scenario examined. The electricity sector has the largest lag in investment, both for renewable generation and grids.
In order to classify the capital requirements for the investments under consideration, a historical comparison can be used, for example. In the analysis, such a comparison is made for the energy industry. Result: The investment volume estimated in the study for this sector would correspond to approximately doubling the average annual investment for the period from 2018 to 2022. Particularly for wind turbines, large PV systems on open spaces and electricity distribution and transmission networks, the investment volume in the scenario would have to be significantly higher than that historical levels rise. Investments in rooftop PV systems, made particularly by private households, are already close to the determined level. A clear investment gap has already been identified for North Rhine-Westphalia in other articles on FinConnectNRW. Therefore, there is likely to be a noticeable delay in investment in the energy transition here too.
The higher investments in the sectors under consideration would amount to more than six percent of the gross domestic product, an increase compared to today's level. With a constant economic savings rate, this capital requirement would have to come at the expense of investments in other sectors. Otherwise, the overall economic savings rate or capital imports from abroad would have to increase. In addition, there are special challenges for equity investors, especially municipalities as owners of municipal energy supply companies, including in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The analysis including data sheet can be found at ewi.uni-koeln.de.
